Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 12.3% and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 12.4% during the second quarter of 2018-19 viz. July-September 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2018 would be released during the first week of December 2018.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Prof Saikat Sinha Roy, Prof & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Prof NR Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Prof C Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
