The curtains are down for the southwest monsoon in 2018. The season has ended with rainfall 9% short of the long period average (LPA), which is considered ‘normal’ by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), thus marking three straight years of adequate monsoon.
The last time the country saw a hat-trick was from 2010 to 2013 – four years of normal rains at the all-India level – that delivered average agriculture GDP growth of 4.7%. For the current period, agriculture growth could trail this number, yet will be well on trend, CRISIL said in its report, ‘Looking beyond normal rains’, released today.
“But there are some spoilers,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd. “Rainfall distribution has been patchy and farmer income are down. The good news is that rural non-farm side is seeing better days. Also, given healthy overall production, food inflation might stay contained.”
