CRISIL Research expects consumption of non-coking coal to clock a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~5.4% to ~1,076 million tonne (MT) in fiscal 2023 from 826 MT in fiscal 2018. This would be driven by a 6.5% CAGR in coal-based power generation. Domestic supply is forecast to log a CAGR of 7% to 931 MT from 664 MT between fiscals 2019 and 2023. The growth will ride on increased production from Coal India Ltd (CIL) and commissioning of large captive coal blocks such as Pakri Barwadih, Parsa East and Kente Basan (15 MTPA each), primarily allotted to PSUs. Consequently, the share of imports in non-coking coal consumption is forecast to fall to 13.4% in fiscal 2023 from 19.6% in fiscal 2018. In absolute terms, non-coking coal imports are estimated to decline to 145 MT in fiscal 2023 from 162 MT in fiscal 2018.
Power sector imports are projected to cross ~75 MT by fiscal 2023, driven by demand from imported coal-based plants as their plant load factors (PLFs) improve following growth in power demand. However, non-power sector imports are expected to decline to ~70 MT due to improvement in domestic supply post linkage auctions and development of key captive blocks allocated to the non-regulated sector.
