India must be geared up to receive low rainfall. According to a private forecaster Skymet Weather, this year’s South-West Monsoon (June-September) is likely to be ‘below normal’, at around 93 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
This has been the first weather forecast for 2019. The India Met Department (IMD) is likely to come out with its own forecast by mid-April.
A preliminary monsoon forecast guidance by Skymet on February 25 had predicted normal rains. Howvever, the probability of normal monsoon at about 50 per cent, but spoke of an equally possible chance of rainfall ending below normal. This was due to the January projections, which indicated that chances of El Nino were fading rapidly.
But the scenario changed completely in February, with moderate El Nino conditions emerging over the Pacific Ocean.
An El Nino could be declared any time now, Skymet said. A source at Skymet said the Pacific is now strongly warmer than average. It’s model projections would indicate 80 per cent chance of El Nino conditions during March-May, dropping to 60 per cent for June-August.
This could mean that it could be a devolving El Nino year, though retaining threshold values all through the season. Monsoon 2019 will probably be below normal.
Skymet has factored in an error margin of +/-5 per cent while computing the rainfall at 93 per cent of the LPA of 89 cm during June-September. It sees nil chances of excess rainfall (more than 110 per cent of the LPA).
The month of June may have a sluggish rainfall but the resultant rain deficit may spill into July. But, the second half of the season might see a stronger rainfall rainfall.
The saving grace, the Skymet said, could be IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which is likely to be in the neutral or positive phase during the monsoon. It may be able to absorb some of the El Nino blues and would possibly support rainfall during the second half of monsoon.
