CRISIL Research expects solar power capacity addition to ramp up to 56-58 GW between fiscals 2019 and
2023, compared with 20 GW between fiscals 2014 and 2018. This will be driven by capacities allocated/
tendered under the National Solar Mission, state solar policies, other schemes driven by SECI (ISTS, winsolar
hybrid etc.) and PSUs. Additionally, even though 7-8 GW of capacity additions are expected under
solar rooftop over the same period, the pace of growth for the sector is going to fall behind the overall target
set for it.
We expect some delay in project implementation on account of the duty as the ‘change in law’ clause is
expected to be sought for ~12 GW of under-construction projects. Logically, domestic module
manufacturers would become the main suppliers to solar developers in India. However, their supply
capacities are far short of the annual demand of the sector. Hence, we expect a rise in capital costs over
the near-term due to the duty. Additionally, in light of falling module prices, the impact of the duty remains
to be seen.
