The respondents in a CARE Ratings Survey on ‘Economic Perspective for 2019’ feel that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government may be in power in 2019, by a majority or in the form of a coalition with new allies.
As per the survey, 285 participants responded from various sectors such as agriculture and allied, manufacturing, financial services, banking, infrastructure, real estate and services. 47 per cent of the participants expect the existing NDA government to come back to power using a majority while 34 per cent feel they may not get an absolute majority.
The ones who said the NDA government may not get an absolute majority were further asked if there would be a coalition government with new allies, 84 per cent of the respondents agreed on this, the credit rating agency mentioned in the report.
“Nearly one-third of the respondents feel that implementation of GST (Goods and Services Tax) and resolution of banking system NPAs (non-performing assets) have been unsatisfactory, while ‘Housing for all’, ‘Power for all’ and ‘financial inclusion’ have been satisfactory. Therefore, reaching out to the poor has been effective unlike the more complex issues such as GST and NPA resolution,” the survey said.
The survey said that GST implementation has been satisfactory as per 42 per cent of the respondents, though 30 per cent were not happy about it. As for social-oriented schemes, the response has been quite positive with more than two-third being in its favour, it said.
The survey said there is a divided opinion in terms of the resolution of NPAs in the banking system, with 38 per cent opining that implementation of policies is satisfactory, with 36 per cent feeling it is unsatisfactory.
The survey also said that economic growth in the coming fiscal year may be hindered on account of slowdown in global economy, liquidity pressures in the banking system, elections and rising crude oil prices.
Furthermore, it said that more than 40 per cent of the participants feel that liquidity pressures in the banking system, slowdown in global growth and elections would be risks for economic growth of India in 2019-20. More than 36 per cent indicate that increasing crude oil prices and fiscal slippages might hinder high economic growth. As per respondents, other risks pertain to employment generation (28 per cent), trade wars (23 per cent) and currency volatility (15 per cent).”
“Forty per cent expect GDP growth for 2019-20 at around 7-7.5 per cent, while 29 per cent foresee it to be somewhere between 6.5-7 per cent, and 23 per cent people suggest that it would be above 7.5 per cent. On the whole, a little over 75 per cent expect it to be below 7.5 per cent.” said the report.
