The market expanded for three straight weeks, powered by record foreign buying. This week brings a fresh test: wholesale inflation, Nvidia’s first results without its founder, US Federal Reserve minutes, a rebound in oil and a big public-sector IPO. Here’s what to watch, and why each matters.
Dalal Street enters the new week on a winning streak, but a cautious one.
The Nifty closed Friday at 25,144.30, up 0.63% for the week, its third straight weekly gain. The Sensex rose 0.73% to 81,592.45. Bank stocks led: the Nifty Bank index jumped 3.71% for the week, closing at 61,034.10. Market volatility eased, with the India VIX falling about 5% to 15.78.
Underneath, the forces driving the market are pulling in different directions. Here are the five that will matter most this week.
FPI buying
Of course, the single biggest factor in the market right now: foreign investors. Their purchases totalled ₹79,300 crore in November on the exchanges’ daily data, and about ₹84,291 crore on NSDL’s depository data. Analysts say this could become the biggest month of foreign buying ever.
Domestic institutions, meanwhile, have sold for two straight weeks, taking profits into the rally.
What to watch: the daily flow numbers. As long as foreign buying holds above a few thousand crore a day, the rally has fuel. A sudden stop would leave the market relying on domestic funds, which have been sellers.
Inflation: wholesale prices on Monday
India’s wholesale price inflation data for October is due on Monday, 16 November. It follows last week’s retail inflation figure of 6.09%, above the RBI’s 6% upper limit.
What to watch: whether price pressures are spreading from food to manufactured goods. A high wholesale number would strengthen the case for an RBI rate increase in December, which would weigh on rate-sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and carmakers.
Oil: the cheap window is narrowing
Brent crude is back near $96 a barrel, after briefly dropping below $90 last week. Fresh attacks on Saudi energy facilities and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz reversed the fall, and President Donald Trump has said the US doesn’t need a deal with Iran.
What to watch: any sign of US-Iran talks, and any further attacks on shipping. Oil above $100 would hit India’s inflation, the rupee and companies that use a lot of fuel. A fall back towards $90 would help sentiment.
Global: Nvidia, the Fed and the AI trade
Nvidia reports quarterly results on Tuesday, 17 November, after the US market closes, its first report since founder Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive.
The same day brings US retail sales data. On Wednesday, 18 November, the US Federal Reserve releases minutes of its last meeting, which investors will read for clues about December’s expected rate increase. Anthropic’s listing, the biggest AI IPO ever, is also expected to be priced around midweek.
What to watch: how US technology stocks react. The AI sell-off has been one reason foreign money rotated into India this month. A strong Nvidia report could pull some money back to US tech. A weak one could keep India in favour as an alternative.
There’s also a possible US-India trade agreement in the background, which, if it progresses, could lift export-oriented sectors.
IPOs: a big public-sector issue
The primary market wakes up after a quiet Diwali fortnight. Crystal Crop Protection opens its ₹455 crore IPO on 18 November, priced at ₹259–272 a share. Mahanadi Coalfields, the Coal India subsidiary, is expected to open a roughly ₹9,500 crore IPO on 19 November. It’s an offer for sale of 10% of the company by Coal India, so all the money goes to the parent, not to Mahanadi Coalfields itself.
Lock-ins also end on 3.7 crore Shiprocket shares on 16 November.
What to watch: how strongly investors subscribe to Mahanadi Coalfields. A large issue that sails through would signal healthy appetite for new listings. A lukewarm response would suggest investors are getting more selective.
Up yes, but profit booking on
The market’s trend remains positive, but it’s being tested from several directions at once. Foreign money and strong bank stocks are pushing it up. Inflation, rising US interest rates and oil are pulling the other way.
For investors, this is a week to watch the reaction to news more than the news itself. Traders are watching the 25,000 level on the Nifty closely. Holding above it after a week this busy would be a sign the rally has staying power. Losing it would suggest the three-week streak is running out of steam.
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