Market talk puts Jio’s shares at up to ₹1,220, a price that would value it above its long-time rival. Unofficial trading suggests investors are willing to pay.
For a decade, the investor case in Indian telecom was simple. Reliance Jio had the subscribers, and Bharti Airtel earned more from each one. Jio Platforms Ltd.’s initial public offering is set to test whether the market still sees it that way.
Market participants expect a price band of ₹1,150 to ₹1,220 a share, though some put the upper end at ₹1,200 and nothing will be final until the prospectus is filed. That range points to a valuation of about ₹11 lakh crore to ₹12 lakh crore. Jio would become India’s third-most valuable listed company, behind its parent Reliance Industries and Airtel. Reports suggest Jio wants to be valued at a premium to Airtel on earnings, not just on size.
Grey market
So far, the unofficial market is going along. The grey-market premium, the price at which IPO shares change hands informally before listing, began at about ₹148 when trading started on 4 October. By 7 October it had risen to about ₹180. At the top of the expected band, that implies a listing gain of about 15%.
Last month the National Stock Exchange traded at a grey-market premium of more than ₹200 before its IPO, then listed only ₹15 above its issue price. Grey-market deals are small and unregulated, and in large offerings they mostly reflect how hard it is to get shares rather than what the shares will be worth.
The case for a premium
The first is scale: its operating arm, Reliance Jio Infocomm, had 524.4 million subscribers on 31 March 2026, the most in India. The second is optionality: home broadband, enterprise services and digital platforms give Jio more ways to grow than a pure mobile operator. The third is a cleaner balance sheet after the IPO. The offering is entirely new shares, up to 270 million, or about 2.9% of the company, and most of the money will repay up to ₹27,500 crore of Reliance Jio Infocomm’s debt.
The case against is that Airtel has been the better earner for years, extracting more revenue per user. A premium valuation assumes Jio closes that gap through tariff increases and higher-value services. If it does not, the premium becomes a bet on scale alone.
What is being said
Analysts have said that the near-term share prices of listed telecom operators may depend on the valuation Jio achieves. A rich price for Jio would make Airtel look cheaper and could lift the sector. A weak debut would raise doubts about how the whole industry is valued.
The issue is expected to open on 21 October and close on 23 October, with anchor bidding on 19 October and listing targeted for 28 October. The size is reported at about ₹37,700 crore, though some reports suggest it could be trimmed to around ₹30,000 crore. Either way it would beat Hyundai Motor India’s 2024 record. With less shares on offer, market estimates about 3% of the company on offer, its shares will be scarce,which seems to be the play the grey market is working on.
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