Gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce in global markets on Thursday, and Indian prices fell with it. Anyone who bought on Dhanteras last week is now sitting on a loss of around 5%.
Gold’s post-Diwali slide continued on Thursday.
MCX gold futures for December fell about 0.7% to around ₹1,38,700 per 10 grams, from Wednesday’s close of ₹1,39,716. In the retail market, 24-carat gold traded at about ₹1,38,750 per 10 grams in Delhi, ₹1,38,990 in Mumbai and ₹1,39,380 in Chennai.
Silver fell harder. MCX silver dropped about 1.3%, and retail prices slipped to around ₹1,82,600 per kilogram in Mumbai, well below the ₹2 lakh mark it touched recently.
A week after Dhanteras
The timing stings for festive buyers. On Dhanteras, 6 November, 24-carat gold in Delhi was around ₹1.46 lakh per 10 grams. At today’s prices, that’s a fall of about 5% in less than a week (our calculation).
Gold is now about 24% below its record of ₹1.83 lakh per 10 grams, set on 29 January.
The global picture explains the move. Spot gold fell below $4,000 an ounce, after trading above $4,100 on Monday.
Why gold is falling
The main reason is the growing expectation of a US interest rate increase.
On Tuesday, US consumer prices rose more than expected in October. Markets now see a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, possibly by half a percentage point. Higher rates hurt gold in two ways.
Gold pays no interest, so it becomes less attractive when bonds and deposits pay more. And higher US rates tend to strengthen the dollar, which makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
The second reason is fading fear. Gold surged earlier this year as the Iran war, record oil prices and market turmoil drove investors towards safe assets. With oil prices down sharply this month and hopes for a US-Iran settlement, some of that safe-haven demand has eased, although the talks have stalled this week.
There is one small cushion for Indian buyers: the stronger rupee. A rupee near 93.7 per dollar, its best level in six months, means the fall in international prices is passed on more fully in rupee terms.
What now
For families buying jewellery for the wedding season, lower prices are welcome news. Demand at jewellers was strong through the festive season: industry estimates put Dhanteras gold sales at around ₹60,000 crore.
For investors, the picture is more mixed. Indians have been buying gold exchange-traded funds at a record pace, with inflows of more than ₹49,000 crore in the first 10 months of the year, already above all of 2025. Many of those buyers are now looking at losses on recent purchases.
Two signposts will matter over the coming weeks. The first is the Federal Reserve’s December decision. A half-point increase could push gold lower still, while a smaller move or a pause could spark a rebound. The second is the Iran talks. A breakdown in diplomacy would likely revive demand for gold as a safe haven.
Gold’s long-term case as a portfolio diversifier has not changed. But for anyone hoping for quick gains, this week has been a reminder that gold can fall just as fast as it rises.
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