The Sensex rose more than 900 points on Thursday, its best day in weeks. Friday brings several tests for that rally: Amazon’s after-hours fall, the Bank of Japan’s decision, Jio Platforms’ first results as a listed company and the end of a difficult October.
Indian shares start Friday after their best session in weeks. The Sensex rose 905.01 points, or 1.24%, to 74,151 on Thursday, and the Nifty 50 closed at about 22,936, both recovering from early losses. FMCG and realty stocks led, and Adani Ports rose about 6% after raising its guidance.
Holding those gains on Friday may be difficult.
Overnight: Amazon falls
The main overnight news came from Amazon. Its shares fell sharply in after-hours trading, reportedly by as much as 11%, after a small revenue miss, soft holiday guidance and $76 billion of quarterly capital spending outweighed 39% AWS growth.
That is likely to weigh on Asian technology stocks this morning, and Indian IT, which fell 2% on Wednesday, may come under pressure again.
More broadly, the past week of US tech earnings shows investors are now judging AI spending by whether it produces cash, not just growth. Indian IT companies are increasingly valued on their AI revenue, so this affects them too.
Bank of Japan at midday
The Bank of Japan announces its decision around midday Tokyo time, roughly 8:30 to 9 am IST, along with its quarterly economic outlook. It is widely expected to hold rates while sounding cautious about inflation, since Japanese inflation is above 2% and energy prices from the Middle East conflict are keeping it high.
The BoJ matters to Indian markets because of the yen carry trade, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher-yielding assets, including emerging-market shares. A signal of a December rate increase would strengthen the yen and could lead to some selling of risk assets globally.
Jio’s first results
Jio Platforms reports September-quarter results today, its first since listing. After a 27% debut gain and a market value above ₹13 lakh crore, the bar is high.
Key figures to watch are average revenue per user, subscriber growth, home broadband and enterprise growth, and any comments on tariffs. With a free float under 3%, even a small surprise could move the stock sharply. Reliance Industries will also be affected, since Jio’s listed value now has a direct bearing on how the market values Reliance.
Other items today
- Tata Motors is due to complete its settlement with Iveco today.
- Results continue: NTPC reports on Saturday, and other mid-cap companies report throughout the day.
- IPOs: EAAA India Alternatives lists on Monday after a weak start and a late recovery to 5.25 times subscription. BLS Polymers and SFC Environmental closed on Thursday and list on 3 November.
- Month-end: October ends today. The Nifty is down more than 2% for the month and smaller stocks are down more, despite this week’s rebound. Expect some position adjustments by funds.
Beyond today, several factors will be watched. October vehicle sales figures arrive on Sunday, 1 November, and will show how strong festive demand is. Then comes the US midterm election on 3 November. President Trump has suggested further action against Iran could follow, and oil prices remain very sensitive to that.
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