After a week of tanker attacks and missile strikes across the Gulf, there was a diplomatic effort over the weekend. Qatari mediators went to Tehran with US backing, and President Trump said he was weighing a deal against new strikes.
Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday as part of an effort to ease tensions in the region, coordinated with the United States, Reuters reported, citing an official briefed on the situation. Neither side has disclosed which Iranian officials they met or what proposals they brought.
The visit followed one of the most dangerous weeks since the conflict began in February. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis attacked Saudi airports, the Yanbu oil export hub and pumping stations on the East-West pipeline. US intelligence warned that Iran was in the advanced stages of planning attacks on US targets in the region.
Trump keeps both options open
President Trump has kept both diplomacy and military action on the table. At a rally on Friday he said the US might carry out another round of strikes under Operation Epic Fury, the name of the US–Israeli campaign that began on 28 February. On Sunday he ruled out a strike that day and said he was weighing an agreement with Tehran against further military action.
Iran has sent mixed signals. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that despite talk of a new war, he was already thinking about the post-war period, and that Iran’s policies would stay the same either way. Iran retains the ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz, and the US continues a naval counter-blockade of Iranian ports.
According to Iran International, neither side has publicly indicated it is ready to resolve the differences that have stalled negotiations. That leaves Qatar and other mediators trying to find room for an agreement while both sides prepare for the talks failing.
Qatar’s role and oil markets
Qatar has a long record as a mediator. It helped broker the ceasefire that ended the 12-day Israel–Iran war in 2025, which held until the current conflict began in February. It has relations with both Washington and Tehran, although Iran has struck Qatari territory several times during this war, including its gas facilities.
Brent crude fell about 1% to around $115 a barrel in early Monday trading, and US crude fell about 1.1% to about $102. Brent had risen 6.2% last week to its highest weekly close since mid-2022, and is up nearly 90% this year.
The size of the fall shows how cautious traders remain. One round of mediation has not changed the basic situation: Hormuz traffic is still heavily disrupted, the Houthis continue to attack Saudi infrastructure, and both the US and Israel have warned of possible further strikes.
The timing
US midterm elections take place on 3 November, and there have been reports that renewed action against Iran could follow the vote. The Federal Reserve meets this week, and Goldman Sachs has said oil prices above its forecasts are the biggest risk to the outlook.
For India, the outcome matters a great deal. A real de-escalation that reopens Hormuz would lower oil prices, ease inflation, support the rupee and reduce pressure on the RBI. A breakdown, followed by renewed strikes, would push oil higher.
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